Hangzhou Lovin’

Hello sinosplice

bye bye blogspot

new url

http://www.sinosplice.com/~alfismyname/index.html

I wrote this once but blogger ate it. Maybe it�s a good thing as the first one was rather rambling.

I wrote this post over at DocBear�s SARS message board at Agonist.net

�I question the usefulness of any mathematical models for the spread of SARS. The only model that would seem to fit would be a network model. In network models, the most important parts are nodes that have many connections. To predict the behavior of the network you need to look at these nodes, not the whole network on general.

Superspreaders are clearly similar to these nodes, but we already know that the most important thing to do to control SARS is to stop superspreaders. Even the network model doesn�t give us very useful information. There are two many unknowns to make any useful predictions about doubling time. Will there be a large outbreak in the U.S., Africa, India, Russia? The actions of one superspreader could drastically change the future of the outbreak.

Phil B. asks a very good question, Is SARS being contained in Guangdong and if so how is it being controlled? The WHO gave Guangdong high praise for their efforts to control SARS, so I think it is possible that the doctors there might have done a good job. But then they might just be hiding a lot of cases. I’m also curious as to how VietNam was able to stop their outbreak. They seem to have done better than the Canadians.�

I got to thinking and I came up with my own network model of SARS spread.

The nodes in my network would be cites or centers of population. It would be best to have individuals be the nodes, but since I want a global simulation and the number of SARS patients is so low compared to the population, this would be impossible. In my network every node is connected and the strength of the connection is determined by the amount of travel between the two cities. Each node has a level of infection ranging from 0 not infected to 5 out of control epidemic. Each level has different properties. Each city also has a measure of the quality of healthcare.

The network changes by doing two calculations every turn (representing Days or weeks). First it calculates the level of infection in every city based on the cites previous infection and the quality of health care. The second calculation is done on all the connection, it calculates the probability of being infected by another node based on the other nodes level of infection and the strength of the connection.

The levels of infection are

0 no infection, can only be infected by another node, at which time the city will either go to level 1 or 2, 50/50 percent of the time, but also taking into account the cities quality of health care. Probability of infecting another city 0*
1 small contained infection (i.e. just a few people have it and they are all properly quarantined, like the U.S. now), probability of moving up/down/staying the same 3/17/80. infecting another city

Blogger sucks

Changing host to Sinosplice to get out from under the oppresive fist of Chinese internet censorship. Due to John’s genorous offer, everybody can hear me telling truth to power, and they won’t even need proxies!

new site

http://www.sinosplice.com/~alfismyname/index.html

Since it looks lik ei’m gonna be spending more time inside, Anybody know the NBA playoff schedule on CCTV 5?

People are really freaked about SARS at my school. They keep calling me to make sure I’m in and tellin gme to keep my windows open and drink my SARS tea. I heard that they put up a police roadblock outside te city and are sending anyone with a cough directly to the hospital. Now this really scares me. It is very easy to get a cold in China because of the pollution and all the people. Getting he cold dosn’t scare me, but going to the hospital terrifies me. I can’t think of a better way to get SARS.

I talked to the girl I know in Beijing and she said her father has not been allwoed home from the hospital for two weeks, because they have SARS there. She said he dosn’t have SARS but you never know.

I’ve been planning a trip to the mountains near my city, I’ve figured it will be safe because teir probably won’t be to many peopl ethere, but I’m not sure if I want to risk the roadblock. Basically I think I can stay safe if I avoid crowds and don’t do stupid shit like share drinks with random drunken people and run away from anyone with a fever and a shallow cough. It’s just the unknownables that have me worried. How many SARS patients are their in the city?

I also read that they are telling tour groups not to go to rural parts of China. Is this because they don’t want the tour groups to infect the people in the country side or does it mean that SARS is running rampant in the countryside and they will never get this damn thing under control?

Oh yeah, all those masks people are wearing are useless as protection, though they proably do help stop people who are already infected from spreading the virus. But if you are SARS free they are pretty worthless.

A few minutes ago one of the chinese teachers at the school I teach at walked in and gave me some traditional medicine that supposedly controls SARS. Since he also told me SARS has been found in XinXiang I brewed it up right away. It’s pretty tasty. This town is starting to suck cuase of SARS. They closed the big Bars, which sucks cause one of the main places I practised my chinese was flirting with the Barmaids. Thay always were trying to get me to buy drinks to, but I ain’t no sugar daddy. The Mayday cancelation is pretty halfassed as most people in the city are still getting time out. People are pretty freaked out, so I don’t think many people are gonna be travelling. I donh’t do y’all think I should wear a mask or not?

Had class last night and the bastards where trying to teach me english. they were trying to tell me “ill” meant wicked, and I was like ill only means sick dumbasses, but they didn’t believe me. I was gonna explain the subtle meaning of “ill” in hip hop terminology, but China has a severe funk deficiancy so I didn’t bother.

Mafan

that’s what SARS is.

I just finished this book, read it in two days, “Red Dust”. I liekd it alot. It’s about this dissident painter, writer photagrapher and his travels through china in the early eighties. Even though it was translated from the chinese, it still has the flavor of chinese english, misuse of multisylabic words and mixed metaphors (has anybody heard the word “wangle” before, the only place I have seen it are in my Chinese made dictionary and then in this book).

But after a slow start the book really picks up, as the author almost kills himself searching out a Buddhist shrine in the desert, then has to trick some thrieves who stole his camera and later makes a spritual trip to Tibet. It really got me more intersted in travelling around China, (to bad about SARS…)

One thing he does is learn “Qigong,” which is a Daoist form of meditation where you focus the “qi” in your body in order to do cool shit. He learns who to makes his hands get hot and start to sweat from the qi.

I thought this was sounding like a good party trick, so I googled qigong and got this site, (Strangely enough based in Minnesota).

I did the little exercise they had posted, and when I got to the end where you are suppossed to move your hands together and feel the qi, I actually felt it.

Pretty rad,

I recommend trying it, it’s really easy and you feel really mystical and able to shot fireballs at people after you try it.