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Intersting qoute from pedantry, (ok I’m a blog nerd, I’ll admit it).
“Zvi Bar’el’s article leads us to think the Arab states will make a clear statement in favour of the French/German/Russian/Chinese position in the next few days. This would represent a huge shift in power in the middle east, with Arab states rejecting Washington in favour of Paris and Berlin. This begins to cut to the heart of matters: oil and Israel. The EU is a far larger consummer of middle eastern oil that the US, and it would be terribly damaging for America if oil was priced in Euros, as well as more or less guaranteeing the Euro as the global reserve currency. It would also sideline the US in the Israeli conflict. If America can no longer deliver compliance in the Arab world, but the EU can, Israel will have lost a major battle on the international scene.”
I’m strange politically in that I’m fairly liberal but have a streak of antieuropeanism in me, so I never gave europe’s opposition to the war much credit. But I never thought about this. It’d be crazyif the world started using the Euro instead of the dollar, though porably not that good for europe because it would make the euro to high. Politically it would be a huge blow to the US.
I still think we are gurennteed to see a war. It’s bush’s only way out. If he dosn’t fight the war, he waisted a hell of a lot of money on a military build up and all his tough talk is for nothing. Though it could be in Bush’s favor to wait till next year to start, becasue then for the election he would still be riding the high poll numbers the war will surely bring. But if he starts the war soon and it goes well, which is likley enough. Ten what are his critiques gonna say? He will be able to point at the results and say,see war was the best option. If he sits on his ass, his postion just gets weaker and weaker.
I think the one man people have underestimated here is Saddam. He’s played everbody brilliantly, tiptoeing the line between letting the inspectors have just enough information and keeping up the right amount of blockage has caused a rift in world politics that puts him in the best possible position. I hope we don’t go to war with this guy, he is still way to smart and he’s playing for keeps this time.