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So, It’s newyearas eve here in China, and I’m probably gonna spend it with some koreans… I don’t really feel bad about missing out on this chance to learn about chinese culture because I get the impression that Spring festival is a lot like thanksgiving; Very imporant for if you are part of the tradtion, but not so exciting if you are an outsider. So maybe tonight I will get a ittle taste of korean culture. I had heard that Koreans are rather xenophobic and don’t like outsiders, but the ones I have got to talking to have all been very nice.
Allright, here’s my rundown of the Iraqi situation as it stands. From Saddam hussien’s prespective he’s damned if he does and damned if he dosn’t. If he cooperates fully with the inspecotrs they will find a hidden weapons program and then Bush will immiediatly go to war, if he dosn’t we’ll still go to war. Now this war isn’t really about WMDs, Saddam is definitly containable as a military force and has no motivation to give his weapons to terrorists as that would probably result in his being removed from office. I think that the only chance we have for peace is if Saddam cooperates, but I think he is too stubborn and parnoid to do that, so I think this is his strategy.
1. Try to push back the date of war as long as possible, so that the americans have to finish the war quickly becasue we can’t fight in the summer in our Bio/Chem suits.
2. On the brink of war, try to cooperate to put further rifts in any coalition.
3. Once the war starts maximise casualties, civilian and military
4. Attack isreal, this will probably happen through terrorism less likely through scuds
5. This is the key, if isreal joins a war against Iraq, then arab support will likely diminish greatly, i wouldn’t be surprised if saddam agents are not already in place to try to agitate the population of key arab countries.
6. Try to drag the war out long enough to create a full blown regional Civil war, where in the Choas, Saddam will be able to find a littl echunk of hell to call his own.
I’m not really sure if this will happen, I think the most likely scenario for a war with Iraq is a quick american victory, followed by a surge in support for Bush. In this scenaria) We won’t see the real negative consequnces (beside the civilian casualties, or if we see another al queda stike) for a few years. The scenario outlined above is what I think Saddam is thinking. It may bot be the most likely but if he has had a long time to prepare and it well within the realm of possibilities.